Koreksi bias statistik pada data prediksi suhu permukaan air laut di wilayah indian ocean dipole barat dan timur

Author: MK Najib, S Nurdiati. 

Abstrak: The IOD can be measured using the Dipole Mode Index (DMI) which is calculated based on the sea surface temperature in the Indian Ocean. Therefore, DMI can be predicted using sea surface temperature forecasting data, such as data that provided by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). However, the data still has bias as compared to the actual data, so to get a more accurate prediction, corrected data is needed. Therefore, this study aims to correct the bias of the sea surface temperature forecasting data in the west and east IOD regions using the quantile mapping method, a method that connects the distribution of forecasting and actual data, then from the results of the correction, the IOD index prediction value and its accuracy value will be calculated. The results showed that the DMI prediction using ECMWF data after correction was more accurate than the DMI prediction using ECMWF data before correction. Moreover, DMI predictions using corrected data have high accuracy to predict IOD events in October-April.

Keywords: Bias Correction; ECMWF; Indian Ocean Dipole; Quantile Mapping

Link: https://doi.org/10.34312/jgeosrev.v3i1.8259

Dipublikasikan pada Jambura Geoscience Review (JGEOSREV), volume 3, no 1, hal. 9-17